认知框架下的借代现象及其语篇功能探究

同隐喻一样,借代也是一种重要的思维方式和认知工具.然而,长期以来,借代研究仍然拘泥于修辞范畴,其功能得不到充分体现.本文从认知角度出发,在引入理想化认知模型(ICM)的基础上对借代的工作机制进行重新探讨和认识,同时对其在语篇连贯和衔接方面所发挥的重要作用也进行了初步研究.     

Model selection for Lévy measures in diffusion processes with jumps from discrete observations

We deal with parametric inference and selection problems for jump components in discretely observed diffusion processes with jumps. We prepare several competing parametric models for the Lévy measure that might be misspecified, and select the best model from the aspect of information criteria. We construct quasi-information criteria (QIC), which are approximations of the information criteria based on continuous observations.     

总体镜下的中国模式

随着＂华盛顿共识＂的式微,＂中国模式＂正日益兴起。当前,理论界热议中的＂中国模式＂尚处于一种能指的狂欢状态。从方法论上来看,分析还原论的方法堵塞了认知＂中国模式＂的道路,这种方法表征的是思维的初级阶段。打破目前僵局的唯一路径,就是要彻底变革思维方式,用马克思的方法——总体性的方法研究马克思主义中国化进程中的事物——＂中国模式＂,这种方法的基本运思理路是面向总体,维护总体与获得总体。惟此,＂中国模式＂方能走向澄明之境。     

A pattern-mixture odds ratio model for incomplete categorical data

Most models for incomplete data are formulated within the selection model framework. Pattern-mixture models are increasingly seen as a viable alternative, both from an interpretational as well as from a computational point of view (Little 1993, Hogan and Laird 1997, Ekholm and Skinner 1998). Whereas most applications are either for continuous normally distributed data or for simplified categorical settings such as contingency tables, we show how a multivariate odds ratio model (Molenberghs and Lesaffre 1994, 1998) can be used to fit pattern-mixture models to repeated binary outcomes with continuous covariates. Apart from point estimation, useful methods for interval estimation are presented and data from a clinical study are analyzed to illustrate the methods.     

“现代化”之后的东亚农业和农村社会——日本、韩国和台湾地区的案例及其历史意蕴

日本、韩国和台湾地区的农业和农村通常被看作中国大陆农业和农村的样板。但是,以粮食大量依赖进口,农村的空洞化、老龄化和劳动力不足,以及与"新娘短缺"相伴的"外籍新娘"的涌入为代表,这三个国家和地区的粮食和人口的再生产都处于难以持续的状态,"现代化"之后的农业和农村实际上都处于严重的危机之中。这种状况与其具有高度竞争力的工业和拥挤的城市形成鲜明对照,它是"东亚模式"或"东亚资本主义"的一种必然结局,也对中国大陆农业和农村的未来演变趋势提出了警示。     

论艾伦·卡尔松的"环境模式"

艾伦·卡尔松认为,西方自然审美欣赏有两种传统模式——对象模式和景观模式。前者将对象从自然环境中孤立出来欣赏,后者从特定距离和角度静态地欣赏自然,都不足取。他立足于自然是自然的和自然是环境的原则,提倡动态、全方位和投入式地欣赏作为整体存在的环境自然。环境模式为卡尔松认识论自然美学奠定了重要理论基础,有普遍的理论意义。但是,这种三模式并非如卡尔松所理解的那样相互对立,而是可以共存、相互合作的。     

Analysis of a continuous-time proportional hazard model using discrete duration data

Many economic duration variables are often available only up to intervals, and not up to exact points. However, continuous time duration models are conceptually superior to discrete ones. Hence, in duration analyses, one faces a situation with discrete data and a continuous model. This paper discusses (i) the asymptotic bias of a conventional approximation procedure in which a discrete duration is treated as an exact observation; and (ii) the efficiency of a correct maximum likelihood estimator which appropriately accounts for the discrete nature of the data.     

Robust methods in econometrics

This survey of recent developments in robust estimation and inference is directed primarily toward econometricians. It is argued that many of the techniques in common use in econometrics are highly sensitive to unverified hypotheses. Recent progress in designing alternative robust procedures is described and some prospects for future developments are discussed.     

Predicting the Condom Assertiveness of Collegiate Females in the United States From the Expanded Health Belief Model

ABSTRACT. Collegiate females in the United States are susceptible to sexually transmitted infections (STIs) due to their propensity for sexual exploration, multiple sexual partnerships, and inconsistent safe-sex practices. Despite the potential for safe-sex communication to contribute to safer sex, little is known about the predictors of this form of sexual communication. Research on condom assertiveness—the unambiguous messaging that sex without a condom is unacceptable—is especially rare. This study employed the Expanded Health Belief Model (EHBM) in an attempt to understand why some collegiate females are more condom assertive than others. Compared with less condom-assertive females, more condom-assertive females have more faith in the effectiveness of condoms, believe more in their own condom communication skills, perceive that they are more susceptible to STIs, believe there are more relational benefits to being condom assertive, believe their peers are more condom assertive, and intend to be more condom assertive. Overall, EHBM variables accounted for nearly 70% of the variability in condom assertiveness. Several of these associations, however, were moderated by sexual compulsivity and general assertiveness. Implications of these findings for sexual health practitioners are discussed, and directions for future research are suggested.     

Decentralized WIP-oriented manufacturing control (DEWIP)

DEWIP is a manufacturing control system for job shop environments aiming at achieving short and reliable lead times by establishing WIP control loops between the manufacturing work centres. The paper describes the mode of function, the setting of parameters and simulation results of the new manufacturing control system. The setting of parameters is done with the aid of the funnel model and the theory of logistic operating curves, both developed at the Institute of Production Systems at the University of Hanover. The simulation is conducted using industrial data and makes it possible to assess DEWIP with regard to lead times, WIP level, performance and schedule reliability. DEWIP is compared both with an uncontrolled process and with the manufacturing control systems Load oriented order release (LOOR), Conwip and Polca. The results suggest that DEWIP and the models employed for the setting of parameters are suitable for job shop production and therefore offer a valuable alternative to prevailing centralized manufacturing control systems.